

Payton Tolle (9-6, 3.02 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) is having a strong season while Rays starter Freddy Peralta is struggling (9-11, 4.67 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) - a significant 1.65 ERA gap favoring Boston's starter. Team-quality log5 model plus Rays home boost gives Rays only ~56-58% fair win prob, close to market, but the starter mismatch tilts real edge toward Red Sox getting +117 plus money.
Red Sox starter Payton Tolle (9-6, 3.02 ERA) significantly outperforms Rays' Freddy Peralta (9-11, 4.67 ERA) this season. Boston just beat Tampa Bay 4-2 yesterday and has momentum in the playoff race. At +125 (implied 44.4%), Tolle's superior ERA and Red Sox's solid 84-70 record create value beyond the market price.
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