

Nobody
The Mets lineup is severely depleted without Francisco Lindor and other key regulars. Facing an inexperienced prospect in Jonah Tong, the Nationals hold great value as a home underdog.
Nobody
Extreme wind (19 mph, 32 mph gusts) blowing IN at Citi Field dramatically suppresses offense—rare conditions not fully captured by standard pitcher matchups. Both Tong (4.21 ERA) and Early (3.44 ERA) are competent arms; with wind carrying balls back into play, run production likely well below 8.5. Market may be slow to price how severely this level of inbound wind affects scoring at this ballpark.
Connelly Early has 87 days of rest - extremely unusual for a starter (normal is 4 days). He's likely rusty, may not last deep into the game, and the '61 pitches last outing' suggests recent bullpen usage rather than starting rhythm. Combined with 16 mph wind blowing IN at Citi Field suppressing offense, the 8.5 total should fall more often than fair 51.1% suggests.