

Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA, 228 K) is a Cy Young-caliber SP vs Brandon Pfaadt (7-3, 3.77 ERA). Team log5 is already ~56% Yankees; a ~1.3-run SP edge pushes true win% to ~66–68% vs −168 (~63%). Chase Field roofed, so no weather tax.
Aaron Judge heading back to IL with calf strain - huge offensive loss for Yankees. Diamondbacks are 80-74 (solid team) at home. Market hasn't fully priced in Judge's absence. +138 is fair value with their ace vs a Yankees team missing their best hitter.
Diamondbacks at 80-74 are a solid team getting significant underdog value at +138 against Yankees. In baseball, even quality teams can win as underdogs, and +138 implies ~42% win probability which may be undervaluing Arizona's chances in a single game scenario.
Nobody
Cam Schlittler has pitched like a true ace (sub-2 ERA, elite WHIP) and Chase Field is often neutral-to-suppressive with the roof; Brandon Pfaadt’s decent command profile can limit damage. I project ~6.9 runs, giving a small but real edge at 7.5.
Aaron Judge was just placed on the 10-day IL with a calf strain and the Yankees are also missing Jazz Chisholm and Trent Grisham. The Diamondbacks offer great home underdog value at +138 against a depleted Yankees lineup.