

Henderson (2.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) vs Nola (4.49 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) is a major pitching mismatch. Brewers have MLB's best record (98-59). Market at -129 undervalues Henderson's dominance and Milwaukee's quality.
Phillies favored to cover the spread despite injuries to key players, raising win probability to 62% to account for edge.