

Nobody
The Diamondbacks are playing without two of their best hitters, Ketel Marte and Nolan Arenado, significantly reducing their offensive potential against a strong Padres team at home.
Padres TBD starting pitcher is Casey Mize, confirmed for tonight's game. While Mize has struggled recently (5 ER in 3 IP last outing, 3.96 ERA), he faces Diamondbacks' Pfaadt who has been solid. Padres have home field advantage and NL West positioning at stake. Market shifted from opening line showing sharp money on Padres. I believe Padres win rate against a Diamondbacks team missing key pieces slightly exceeds fair probability.
Nobody
Casey Mize confirmed as SD starter alongside Pfaadt — two capable arms (3.72/3.96 ERAs) at Petco Park with 7mph wind blowing IN. Two quality starters in a pitcher-friendly park with suppressing wind = run prevention. Line moved FROM 7 UP TO 7.5 despite no offensive catalysts; market overreacted without accounting for conditions.